KNMI ADVISORY MESSAGE
Date: Sunday September 22, 2019 Time: 23:07 local time
Key Messages / Watches and warnings:
– At 11 PM on Sunday evening, Tropical Storm Karen was located around 310 miles (500 km) south of Saba/Statia.
– Karen is moving toward the west-northwest and is expected to turn north by Tuesday, with little change in strength.
– On Tuesday morning, Karen is expected to pass around 180 miles (290 km) west-southwest of Saba/Statia as a Tropical Storm.
– A Tropical Cyclone Advisory is in effect for heavy rainfall associated with Karen, probably 1-3 inches, with a slight risk of up to 5 inches. Flash flooding is possible.
– There is a very small risk (8%) of Tropical Storm conditions, starting Monday afternoon at the earliest.
Effect on local conditions
Until Monday afternoon winds will be easterly and moderate to fresh (4-5 Bft). Gusts up to 45 mph (around 70 km/h) are possible near showers. On Monday evening winds will gradually become southeasterly, windspeed will still be moderate to fresh, 4-5 Bft. Monday night into Tuesday morning winds will become southerly and fresh, possibly strong 5-6 Bft.
There is a very small risk (8%) of tropical-storm conditions starting (earliest) Monday afternoon. From that moment on gusts up to 50 mph (75-80 km/h) are possible near showers.
5-7 ft (moderate) from easterly directions. Also 2-4 ft northerly swell. Swell will diminish on Tuesday. Monday evening and Tuesday wave direction will gradually become southerly with waveheight increasing to 6-8 ft. In case of tropical storm conditions (8%) rough seas of 8-12 ft are possible.
Until Monday afternoon scattered showers, possibly thunderstorms. From the afternoon shower intensity will increase with the highest likelihood of these intense showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Total rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected with a slight risk of amounts up to 5 inches. These rains may cause flooding and mudslides. On Wednesday shower activity will still continue, but showers will gradually weaken somewhat.
Local authorities and residents of Saba and St. Eustatius are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.
Center’s latest and forecast positions:
Till Fri Sep 27 20:00 AST, the nearest position is estimated at:
Tue Sep 24 11:00 AST 17.3N 65.8W Tropical Storm 279 km (173 mi) W of Saba
Sun Sep 22 23:00 AST 13.1N 63.5W Tropical Storm 505 km (314 mi) S of Saba
Mon Sep 23 08:00 AST 13.9N 64.5W Tropical Storm 436 km (271 mi) SSW of Saba
Mon Sep 23 20:00 AST 15.3N 65.2W Tropical Storm 333 km (207 mi) SW of Saba
Tue Sep 24 08:00 AST 16.9N 65.8W Tropical Storm 284 km (177 mi) WSW of Saba
Tue Sep 24 20:00 AST 18.7N 66.0W Tropical Storm 315 km (196 mi) WNW of Saba
Wed Sep 25 20:00 AST 22.4N 65.7W Tropical Storm 589 km (366 mi) NNW of Saba
Thu Sep 26 20:00 AST 25.0N 66.0W Tro pical Storm 868 km (539 mi) NNW of Saba
Fri Sep 27 20:00 AST 26.0N 67.0W Severe Tropical Storm 1008 km (626 mi) NNW of Saba