TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 1
INFORMATION MESSAGE NO. 1
Date: Wednesday September 26, 2018 Time: 05:25 local time
Key Messages / Watches and warnings:
– NHC has re-initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Kirk.
– Tropical Storm Kirk is moving west and is expected to pass about 280 km (170 miles) south of Saba and St. Eustatius on Friday morning around 08:00 AST.
– Maximum winds expected on Friday, with very small risk (around 10%) of tropical storm wind conditions.
Effect on local conditions
Thursday in the course of the evening increasing winds, 5-6 Bft (20-30 mph, 30-48 km/h) and increasing strong to possibly near gale, 6-7 Bft (25-35 mph, 40-55 km/h) Friday morning, with gusts up to 35-45 mph, 55-72 km/h. There is around 10% risk of tropical storm wind conditions. From Friday afternoon becoming east tot southeast and decreasing.
Moderate 4-6 ft, increasing to 6-8 ft possibly rough 7-9 ft on Friday. From Friday afternoon gradually decreasing to 4-6 ft.
Thursday evening through Friday showers and thunderstorms. Rain accumulation approximately 1 inch, possibly 1.5-2 inch.
Local authorities and residents of Saba and St. Eustatius are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.
Center’s latest and forecast positions:
Till Mon Oct 01 02:00 AST, the nearest position is estimated at:
Fri Sep 28 09:00 AST 15.1N 63.7W Tropical Storm 289 km (180 mi) S of Saba
Wed Sep 26 05:00 AST 11.8N 52.7W Tropical Storm 1305 km (811 mi) ESE of Saba
Wed Sep 26 14:00 AST 12.4N 55.0W Tropical Storm 1058 km (658 mi) ESE of Saba
Thu Sep 27 02:00 AST 13.2N 57.6W Tropical Storm 779 km (484 mi) SE of Saba
Thu Sep 27 14:00 AST 14.1N 60.0W Tropical Storm 523 km (325 mi) SE of Saba
Fri Sep 28 02:00 AST 14.8N 62.3W Tropical Storm 330 km (205 mi) SSE of Saba
Sat Sep 29 02:00 AST 15.7N 67.0W Tropical Depression 455 km (283 mi) WSW of Saba
Sun Sep 30 02:00 AST 15.9N 71.6W Tropical Depression 911 km (566 mi) WSW of Saba
Mon Oct 01 02:00 AST 16.0N 76.0W Tropical Depression 1370 km (851 mi) W of Saba