The US National hurricane center in Miami warned us that satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicated, that a small area of low pressure has developed along a tropical wave about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

However, the low does not quite have a closed circulation, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while moving generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic.

This system is expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there should monitor its progress.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

NOAA