KNMI: TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 18 – Maria

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 18

Date: Wednesday September 20, 2017 Time: 06:44 local time

Weather conditions are still extreme. Residents of Saba are advised to remain inside. 

Saba is still experiencing wind and rain from hurricane Maria. So far no hurricane Maria related injuries have been reported to police or hospital. One none hurricane related injury has been brought to the hospital under escort of police and is receiving care. Direct family has already been informed.

GIS Saba

Watches/warnings:

The Strike Phase of the Tropical Storm Warning will remain in effect for Saba for probably several more hours. A Tropical Cyclone Advisory concerning heavy precipitation and rough seas will remain in effect for St. Eustatius (Statia). The Hurricane Watch for both St. Eustatius (Statia) and Saba has been discontinued. 

Early this morning at 05:00 AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 65.6 West, which is 252 km (157 mi) to the west of Saba. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a northwestward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track the eye of Maria will make landfall in Puerto Rico in a couple of hours, cross Puerto Rico today, and pass just north of the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and it should maintain this intensity until landfall.

Effect on local conditions

Winds:

Winds are south-southeast and initially near-gale force, 7 Bft. On Saba, winds are Tropical-Storm force at first, 8 Bft (60-70 km/h), with gusts around 100 km/h. On Wednesday morning, winds will gradually decrease to southeast 6 Bft, Wednesday afternoon a further decrease to around 5 Bft is expected. On Thursday, southeasterly winds will gradually further decrease to moderate, 4 Bft.

Seas:

Swells generated by Maria are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Waves will be 12-18 ft this morning from a southerly direction. This afternoon decreasing to 8-12 ft and shifting to a west- to southwesterly direction. This evening further decreasing to 5-8 ft. After Wednesday 2-4 ft of swell from a westerly, from Friday shifting to a northerly direction is expected to last at least until Saturday.

Rainfall:

Wednesday occasional heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected. Rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Later today, showers will gradually decrease in intensity. On top of the high amounts of precipitation that have already occurred, high additional amounts of precipitation are expected, 1-3 inches (25-75 mm), on Saba locally possibly 4 inches (100 mm). On Thursday, some showers and thunderstorms are still expected with precipitation amounts of 0.2-0.6 inches (5-15 mm) and a risk of an isolated 1 inch (25 mm) of precipitation.

Local authorities and residents of Saba and St. Eustatius are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.

Center’s latest and forecast positions:

SABA:
Till Mon Sep 25 02:00 AST, the nearest position is estimated at:
Wed Sep 20 05:00 AST 17.9N 65.6W Category 4 Hurricane 252 km (157 mi) W of Saba

Definitions:

TROPICAL STORM STRIKE WARNING: A warning for tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained winds within the range 63-117 km/h (39-73 mph) (34-63) knots are expected in specified areas in 9-6 hours of less.

Next bulletin: Wednesday September 20, 2017, 12:44 local time

For more info goto: : http://knmidc.org .

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