KNMI: TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 12 – Maria

Listen to the latest address of the Lieutenant Governor, Jonathan Johnson, to the Saba residents:

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 12

WARNING MESSAGE NO. 7

Date: Tuesday September 19, 2017 Time: 04:54 local time

Watches/warnings:

The Strike Phase of the Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch continue to be in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius (Statia) due to Hurricane Maria.

Early this morning at 05:10 AST (0910 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 62.3 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a Category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous Category 4 or 5 Hurricane while it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hurricane-force winds currently extend outward up to 45 km (30 mi) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 km (125 mi). On the forecast track, the closest proximity to St. Eustatius will be 98 km (61 mi) to the SW this afternoon at 15:00 AST, the closest proximity to Saba will be 96 km (59 mi) to the SW this afternoon at 17:00 AST.

Effect on local conditions

Winds:

Winds are northeasterly 7 Bft and an increase to Tropical Storm Force (8 Bft) is imminent. Today from around noon (12:00 AST) the wind (from an easterly direction) will further increase to 9-10 Bft, possibly 11 Bft (80-110 km/h). Gusts are up to 40 km/hr above the average windspeed (up to 150 km/hr). These high wind speeds may continue into early Wednesday. In this period there is a risk of 30% for Hurricane conditions (12 Bft, 118 km/h or more). Wind will turn from east to southeast during the afternoon and evening. Early on Wednesday, winds will gradually become south to southeast. Wednesday morning, wind speeds will gradually decrease to 6 Bft, Wednesday afternoon a further decrease to around 5 Bft is expected.

Seas:

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 7 ft above normal tide levels. Swells generated by Maria are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. During Tuesday waves will increase to 15-20 ft from the afternoon. With a peak in the evening and the night to Wednesday of 20-25 ft. Wave direction initially from an easterly direction, in the evening shifting to southerly directions. On Wednesday morning decreasing to 10-15 ft, and shifting to a southwesterly direction. After Wednesday 2-5 ft of swell from a westerly direction is expected to last at least until Friday.

Rainfall:

Today and tomorrow (Tuesday and Wednesday), Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 100-175 mm (4 to 7 inches) with isolated maximum amounts of 200-250 mm (8 to 10 inches) on Saba and St. Eustatius. Rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rains are expected to occasionally become thundery.

Local authorities and residents of Saba and St. Eustatius are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.

Center’s latest and forecast positions:

SABA:
Till Sun Sep 24 02:00 AST, the nearest position is estimated at:
Tue Sep 19 17:00 AST 16.9N 63.8W Category 5 Hurricane 96 km (59 mi) SW of Saba

Tue Sep 19 05:10 AST 16.0N 62.3W Category 5 Hurricane     207 km (129 mi) SSE of Saba
Tue Sep 19 14:00 AST 16.7N 63.4W Category 5 Hurricane     105 km (65 mi) S of Saba
Wed Sep 20 02:00 AST 17.6N 64.8W Category 4 Hurricane   166 km (103 mi) W of Saba
Wed Sep 20 14:00 AST 18.5N 66.3W Category 4 Hurricane   338 km (210 mi) WNW of Saba
Thu Sep 21 02:00 AST 19.3N 67.8W Category 4 Hurricane     516 km (320 mi) WNW of Saba
Fri Sep 22 02:00 AST 21.2N 70.4W Category 4 Hurricane        849 km (528 mi) WNW of Saba
Sat Sep 23 02:00 AST 23.7N 71.7W Category 3 Hurricane     1109 km (689 mi) NW of Saba
Sun Sep 24 02:00 AST 26.5N 72.5W Category 3 Hurricane    1371 km (852 mi) NW of Saba

Definitions:

TROPICAL STORM STRIKE WARNING: A warning for tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained winds within the range 63-117 km/h (39-73 mph) (34-63) knots are expected in specified areas in 9-6 hours of less.

Next bulletin: Tuesday September 19, 2017, 10:54 local time

Voor meer informatie, ga naar  http://knmidc.org .
Message Island Governor Jonathan Johnson from Facebook:

Good afternoon residents of Saba,

This is island governor Jonathan Johnson with the latest update regarding hurricane Maria. As of 2 p.m., Maria is located at 14.9 degree North and 16.4 degrees West. The movement is West/Northwest at 9 mph. The current winds are 125 mph.

A few updates. 
The shelters will be open this evening as of 7 p.m. The last check-in will be 10 p.m. We do advise that if you have any doubts about your house to go to a family member, friend or as a last resort the shelters. If you do choose to go to the shelter, bring your own water, food and medicines.

Because conditions will worsen tomorrow Tuesday, we decided to have a curfew as of tonight at 10.30 p.m. until Wednesday until the weather improves. 

Again after the hurricane, the emergency services will make a damage assessment. We also ask you to help clean up. 

The power plant will close down as a preventative measure. We will inform you tonight as the exact closing (and turn off of power) and it will not reopen until it is safe to go to the plant. Safety of all our residents is a top priority. That is why we take these preventative measures.
Thank you.

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