KNMI: TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 11 – Maria

Listen to the latest address of the Lieutenant Governor, Jonathan Johnson, to the Saba residents:

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 11

WARNING MESSAGE NO. 6

Date: Monday September 18, 2017 Time: 22:53 local time

Watches/warnings:

A Tropical storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for Hurricane Maria for Saba and St. Eustatius (Statia) At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 61.4 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.

On the forecast track the center of Maria is over Dominica now and will move near the adjacent Leeward Islands during the next few hours, over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea the remainder of tonight and Tuesday, and approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Effect on local conditions

Winds:

During Monday evening winds are northeast and increasing to 5-6 Bft. In the night to Tuesday windspeeds will increase to 6-7 Bft. There is a small risk for tropical storm conditions (8 Bft) during the night.

Tuesday morning the wind will increase to Tropical Storm conditions (8 Bft), from around 02 PM AST (18 UTC) the wind (in an easterly direction) will further increase 8-10 Bft, possibly 11 Bft (80-110 km/hr.) Gusts are up to 40 km/hr above the average windspeed (up to 150 km/hr). This high windspeeds may continue till the early night to Wednesday. In this period there is a small risk (20-30 %) for Hurricane conditions (12 Bft, 120 km/hr or more).

Wind will turn from East to Southeast during Tuesday evening. Wednesday morning wind speeds will decrease to 6-7 Bft and further decrease during Wednesday afternoon.

Seas:

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels near the center of Maria. Swells generated by Maria are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

During Tuesday waves increasing to 15-20 ft from the afternoon. With an peak in the evening and the night to Wednesday of around 25 ft. Wave direction initially from the E. After passing of the storm from S, later SW. After Wednesday 3-6 ft of swell from a W-ly direction is expected to last at least until Friday.

Rainfall:

Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the northern Leeward Islands. Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Local authorities and residents of Saba and St. Eustatius are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.

Center’s latest and forecast positions:

SABA:
Till Sat Sep 23 20:00 AST, the nearest position is estimated at:
Tue Sep 19 18:00 AST 16.9N 63.8W Category 5 Hurricane 104 km (64 mi) SSW of Saba

Mon Sep 18 23:00 AST 15.5N 61.4W Category 5 Hurricane    307 km (191 mi) SE of Saba
Tue Sep 19 08:00 AST 16.1N 62.6W Category 5 Hurricane     183 km (114 mi) SSE of Saba
Tue Sep 19 20:00 AST 17.0N 64.0W Category 5 Hurricane     107 km (67 mi) SW of Saba
Wed Sep 20 08:00 AST 17.9N 65.4W Category 4 Hurricane   231 km (144 mi) W of Saba
Wed Sep 20 20:00 AST 18.7N 66.9W Category 4 Hurricane   405 km (252 mi) WNW of Saba
Thu Sep 21 20:00 AST 20.5N 69.6W Category 4 Hurricane    741 km (460 mi) WNW of Saba
Fri Sep 22 20:00 AST 22.8N 71.5W Category 3 Hurricane    1036 km (644 mi) WNW of Saba
Sat Sep 23 20:00 AST 25.5N 72.5W Category 3 Hurricane   1296 km (806 mi) NW of Saba

Definitions:

TROPICAL STORM WARNING: A warning for tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained winds within the range 63-117 km/h (39-73 mph) (34-63) knots are expected in specified areas in 36 hours of less.

Next bulletin: Tuesday September 19, 2017, 04:53 local time

For more information go to http://knmidc.org .

Message Island Governor Jonathan Johnson from Facebook:

Good afternoon residents of Saba,

This is island governor Jonathan Johnson with the latest update regarding hurricane Maria. As of 2 p.m., Maria is located at 14.9 degree North and 16.4 degrees West. The movement is West/Northwest at 9 mph. The current winds are 125 mph.

A few updates. 
The shelters will be open this evening as of 7 p.m. The last check-in will be 10 p.m. We do advise that if you have any doubts about your house to go to a family member, friend or as a last resort the shelters. If you do choose to go to the shelter, bring your own water, food and medicines.

Because conditions will worsen tomorrow Tuesday, we decided to have a curfew as of tonight at 10.30 p.m. until Wednesday until the weather improves. 

Again after the hurricane, the emergency services will make a damage assessment. We also ask you to help clean up. 

The power plant will close down as a preventative measure. We will inform you tonight as the exact closing (and turn off of power) and it will not reopen until it is safe to go to the plant. Safety of all our residents is a top priority. That is why we take these preventative measures.
Thank you.

The difference between a Category 1 and Category 5 hurrycane

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