Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology forecasters are of the opinion that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season continues to exhibit well below-average activity.
On August 4, this is the seventh year that the Tropical Meteorology Department have issued shorter-term forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) activity starting in early August. These two-week forecasts are based on a combination of observational and modeling tools.
The primary tools that are used for this forecast are as follows: 1) current storm activity, 2) National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather Outlooks, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected state of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and 5) the current seasonal forecast.
Forecasters from the Colorado State University believe that the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at below- average levels (<70 percent of climatology).
The below-average forecast is due to a combination of factors. No tropical cyclones are currently present in the tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center gives a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours for a system that is currently located near the South Carolina coast. This system is unlikely to develop, and none of the reliable forecast model guidance develops any other tropical cyclones in the Atlantic during the next five days, therefore the seasonal forecast is for a well below-average hurricane season.
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